After two consecutive months of price gains, Orange County's housing market may have bottomed out.
But with home-default figures hitting a record high in March, it's clear that a new wave of distressed sales are headed to market. [And? And?! Spell it out for us, OCR. Draw the obvious conclusion: With the amount of distressed inventory about to hit the market, this is most assuredly not the bottom. I mean, how can your lede be "we may have bottomed out," followed by a line immediately refuting your claim? Oy.]
...
But DataQuick analyst John Karevoll observed that it's not likely that the median will go below January's low-water mark.
"In the world of likelihoods, I think we have seen the price bottom," Karevoll said. "But that's a statistical change only."
Lots of hedges, including "may have" "not likely" and "in the world of likelihoods" but that is bottom-calling, no doubt about it.
Could they be right though? Are the bears blinded by their burning desire to see prices fall further?
Hey, in a time of rapidly dwindling newspaper ad revenue, who is one of the primary sources of advertising income to the Orange County Register? Oh, the Real Estate industry?
MY GOD! LOOK AT THE SIZE OF THAT GRAIN OF SALT!
bah. prices are currently on the high end of affordability for us working stiffs. And that's with historically low mortgage rates. And rising unemployment. Until we see unemployment taper and the federal reserve pulling interest rates back up above zero, we will not see a bottom. We will see plenty of movement of properties due to pent up desires of so many who were unable or unwilling to make the move in the middle of the mania and that will be a strong upward pressure, but there's no way it can overcome monetary policy or joblessness.
ReplyDeletedangermike is right, prices will fall....and when will the bottom come? When no one wants to buy a house and it will happen - trust me.
ReplyDeleteThe bottom in the last SoCal RE crash was "in" from about 1993 to 1998. Started heating up a little after that, and of course we know it didn't go apeshit until after Greenspan dropped the rates down to zero after 9/11 and gave the country a giant hit off of the crack pipe.
ReplyDeleteMy guess: the "bottom" will be from about 2011 to 2016 or so. Easy to catch a knife when it is falling through molasses.
Two of the most stupidest ever pictures I've ever seen from a realtor..not to mention the pricing for this place: http://www.redfin.com/CA/Long-Beach/2230-Radnor-Ave-90815/home/7581833
ReplyDeleteJK,
ReplyDeleteWTF is that in picture #5? Did you send it to Lovely Listing?
Just wanted to thank you for setting yourself down and using your talent and research to give us an informative and witty blog! I only discovered you 2 weeks ago and I have read every single entry to learn every aspect of property buying in the U.S. Am currently living in Ireland but am selling up and moving to L.A. probably next year. There are differences in the 'extras' between the two countries so it was good to read about what they are in the States. As a result of your insight, I have decided to chill out, and not rush into buying but will enjoy the convenience of renting. By the time I will be able to buy a place I want to stay in for a while, hopefully the market will be adjusted for the buyers. Thanks again!
ReplyDeleteG Maria
Just wanted to thank you for setting yourself down and using your talent and research to give us an informative and witty blog! I only discovered you 2 weeks ago and I have read every single entry to learn every aspect of property buying in the U.S. Am currently living in Ireland but am selling up and moving to L.A. probably next year. There are differences in the 'extras' between the two countries so it was good to read about what they are in the States. As a result of your insight, I have decided to chill out, and not rush into buying but will enjoy the convenience of renting. By the time I will be able to buy a place I want to stay in for a while, hopefully the market will be adjusted for the buyers. Thanks again!
ReplyDeleteG Maria
JK,
ReplyDeleteThat fifth picture is disturbing. I honestly think Spring Selling Season (tm) insanity has completely overtaken Long Beach sellers. How else do you explain including that photo?