The Magically Expanding House: FINAL UPDATE

Sold on 09/02/11 - $605,000

Well, that only took 400 days.

Look at this long, sad saga:

Sep 02, 2011 - Sold $605,000
Jul 15, 2011 - Pending (Backup Offers Accepted)
Jul 08, 2011 - Price Changed $609,000
Jun 17, 2011 - Price Changed $639,000
May 27, 2011 - Listed (Active) $649,000
May 27, 2011 - Delisted (Cancelled)
May 17, 2011 - Price Changed
May 09, 2011 - Price Changed
Apr 25, 2011 - Price Changed
Mar 30, 2011 - Price Changed
Mar 04, 2011 - Relisted (Active) $699,900
Mar 04, 2011 - Delisted (Hold)
Mar 04, 2011 - Relisted (Active)
Mar 03, 2011 - Delisted
Mar 02, 2011 - Listed
Nov 14, 2010 - Delisted (Expired)
Oct 05, 2010 - Price Changed
Sep 27, 2010 - Price Changed
Aug 27, 2010 - Price Changed
Jul 15, 2010 - Listed (Active)
Apr 14, 2010 - Sold $405,000

Hey, a $200,000 profit! This flipper must really know what he's doing!

Not so fast, punchy.

Setting aside the fact that flippers who know what they're doing actually, you know, flip houses instead of chasing the market down for 13 months, you need to delve a little deeper into his "profit" to determine how well he really did.

First, consider the carrying costs of roughly $28,000 while this thing languished on the market for more than a year. Second, he had to shell out $36,300 in sales commissions. Finally, I estimated the upgrades and repairs at about $120,000.

So he cleared roughly $420,000, for a true profit of a measly 15 grand. Sure, my renovation cost estimate could be too high, but when the list of upgrades includes landscaping, new bathrooms, windows, doors, roof, custom deck, granite counters, appliances, floors, tankless water heater, a new two-car garage and copper plumbing...I'm pretty confident in that price tag.

Remember, this is how the place used to look:

Anyhow, the point is that it looks like the flipper -- who nearly became a flopper -- didn't walk away with much profit for all that work, stress and risk.

So, things didn't work out as planned for the seller. But what about the buyers?

Well, they paid $405 per square foot, which is pretty good for the Heights. And considering the aforementioned upgrades, they won't have to put a dime into the place for a long, long time (other than replacing those cheap-ass laminate floors). Plus, they locked in an insanely low interest rate, putting the total monthly nut at about $3,000. It's doubtful that this place rents for that much, but if you include tax write-offs, they have a very manageable payment likely lower than local rents.

Plus, even if they overpaid, what choice did they have? There ain't shit out there. Believe me, I've been looking like crazy and the inventory situation is downright pathetic.

Go ahead and do a Redfin search for Long Beach houses between $550,000 and $650,000. I count 12 houses in the Heights. Five are pending and two are short sales (one just clocked 343 days, the other is 205 -- obviously not for sale). So, basically this buyer had just five houses in the Heights to choose from.

FIVE.

It's ridiculous.

And now that the Super Summer Selling Season(tm) is over, I'm expecting inventory to decline even further. This is just how it's going to be for the next few years. It sucks, but artificially restricting supply is the only way to increase demand.

I got really close to buying a condo a few months back, but to get it I had to overpay -- and the seller and I knew it. The reason was because this unit was the only game in town. Other nearby condos were either inferior, short sales not really for sale, or dreamers with equity trying to get wishing prices (some of which are now pulling their listings until next spring).

Anyhow, because this condo had very little competition, the seller was in the power position and wouldn't come down far enough to get a deal done. The attitude was, "Where else you gonna go, pal?"

And they were right. I needed to put some mustard on the deal to make it happen.

But I just couldn't bring myself to knowingly overpay in such a soft economy. Values certainly aren't going up any time soon, but my concern was that they would continue to go down -- and I wanted my offer to reflect that and build in some cushion against further deflation.

So, the deal fell apart.

Worse yet, it's under contract now. I'm dying to find out how much it sells for. If it's close to my last offer, I'll be really bummed out. I'll kick myself for not throwing in a few more bucks just to get in there. If the sales price is way more than my offer, I won't have any regrets.

But hey, life goes on. Unless something crazy happens this winter with banks unloading inventory, I'll have to put homeownership on the back burner until next spring. Not the end of the world. The weather is great, the future is bright, and there are more important things in life.

UPDATE: Jim the Realtor had a related post today, Buyer Frustrations.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Price changed from $639,000 to $609,000

Ouch. This is getting uglier by the day. They've knocked off $90,000 from the list price and still no action. I mean, psychologically how do you think that feels?

This flipper is still ahead of the game considering he paid only $405,000 in April 2010, but that seemingly fat $204,000 profit cushion isn't as comforting when you consider the 15 months of carrying costs, the substantial money he sunk into the flip ($80,000? $100,000?), and of course paying out commissions ($36,000).

It's not like he'll lose money on the deal -- I think even in the worst-case scenario he'll break even. But I'm sure he'd like to gain some profit for his trouble, so with the fall and winter months (and his one-year MLS anniversary) approaching it would be wise to keep cutting.

But with a listing history like this, would you characterize this flipper as "wise"?

Jul 08, 2011 - Price Changed $609,000

Jun 17, 2011 - Price Changed $639,000

May 27, 2011 - Listed (Active) $649,000

May 27, 2011 - Delisted (Cancelled)
May 17, 2011 - Price Changed
May 09, 2011 - Price Changed
Apr 25, 2011 - Price Changed
Mar 30, 2011 - Price Changed
Mar 04, 2011 - Relisted (Active)
Mar 04, 2011 - Delisted (Hold)
Mar 04, 2011 - Relisted (Active)
Mar 03, 2011 - Delisted
Mar 02, 2011 - Listed
Nov 14, 2010 - Delisted (Expired)
Oct 05, 2010 - Price Changed
Sep 27, 2010 - Price Changed
Aug 27, 2010 - Price Changed
Jul 15, 2010 - Listed (Active)

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Price changed from $659,000 to $649,000

How's that market chasing workin' out for ya?

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Price changed from $675,000 to $669,500

This is actually the second price reduction in the last four weeks ($30,000 lopped off so far). Will it be enough to for this flipper to make money on his lipstick-on-a-pig makeover?

Well, considering the census bureau reported that homes for sale are currently the lowest they've been since 1967 (yes, you read that correctly), they might find an impatient, frustrated buyer willing to overpay.

For this kind of scratch I think a buyer can do way better, but in this inventory-free environment nothing really surprises me anymore.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++




ADDRESS: 4512 East VERMONT St, Long Beach, CA 90814
ASKING PRICE: $699,900
BEDS: 3
BATHS: 2.75
SQ. FT.: 1,500
$/SQ. FT.: $467
LOT SIZE: 4,735 Sq. Ft.
YEAR BUILT: 1948
COMMUNITY: Belmont Heights/Alamitos Heights
MLS#: P772185
ON REDFIN: 4 days
DOWN PAYMENT: $140,000
INCOME REQUIREMENT (3.5x): $160,000
MONTHLY NUT: $3,700
DESCRIPTION: Remodeled 3 bedroom 2 3/4 bath Home with Contemporary Open Floor Plan and New Laminate Floors throughout. Light & Bright Living Room w/ Venetian Plaster Fireplace opens to Formal Dining Room. New Kitchen w/ Granite Counters, Pantry, & Stainless Steel Appliances including Gas Cooktop, Oven, Dishwasher, & Breakfast Bar opens to Dining Area and to spacious Family room which overlooks NEW Wooden deck with view of the Private Peaceful Backyard. Spacious Master Suite with a New Bathroom with custom flooring, Skylight tube, Vanity & oversized shower w/ seamless shower doors. 2 other custom remodeled bathrooms. There are many other NEW features such as Roof, Copper Plumbing, Tankless Water Heater, Ceiling Insulation, 2 Separate Heating systems, Doors, Paint, Top of the line Designer Sinks & Fixtures, Sod, Sprinklers, Drip System, and some Windows. Opportunity Knocks, Don't miss this Gorgeous Belmont Heights Home!!

Hooray For Intermittent Title Case!

Our featured property was purchased last April for $405,000, and now this flipper is trying to get his mitts on the $294,900 in profits he so richly deserves.

Now, to be fair, in 2010 this place was a certified turd pile:

Woof.

But, as with all flippers, the important question is whether this kitchen is worth the nearly $300,000 premium over the probate sale price:

"But El Bee, clearly they did more work than just the kitchen."

Really? Prove it.

Because although the listing description mentions a laundry list of desirable amenities and upgrades, these are the only other photos:

That's right, friends. A $300,000 markup and only four photos in the whole fucking listing.

I mean, how incompetent do you have to be to dump a bunch of money into flipping a property, jack up the price by hundreds of thousands of dollars, boisterously crow about all the upgrades and renovations, and then fail to, you know, actually include pictures of what you're trying to sell?

And please note that for $700,000 you don't even get a goddamn refrigerator. The balls on this guy.

I'm also curious about something I saw in the description from the 2010 probate listing: "Detached garage. Two rooms off garage that were previously used as additional bedroom and study."

So, since the garage is detached, and these two rooms are off the detached garage, does that mean these rooms are detached from the main house?

The reason I ask is because the public records (and the 2010 listing) clearly indicate this house is a 1-bedroom/1-bath spanning only 888 square feet, but the flipper's new listing is a 3/2.75 clocking in at 1,500. How did this house magically sprout an extra 612 squares?

It appears this dude is trying to include the two rooms off the garage in the total square footage. It's worth noting that if you calculated the price per square foot according to legally confirmed figures in the county assessor's records, the current (and relatively palatable) $467 per square foot would jump to a whopping $788! Motive, anyone?

That seems really fishy. If you're thinking of plunking down nearly three-quarters of a million dollars for this place (HAHAHAHAHA), definitely do your homework and ask the right questions.

Assuming the 1,500 square feet is somehow legitimate, I think a minor price reduction will garner a sale. It's on a relatively big lot in a prime area, has a wealth of upgrades (allegedly), and I think a working couple, forced to wait five years for this massive housing bubble to deflate and return prices to reasonable levels, will look around at the dearth of quality Long Beach inventory and simply bite the bullet and overpay for this flip job.

I myself would feel nauseous paying nearly $300,000 for upgrades that cost, at most, $120,000, but that's just me.

UPDATE: Listing photos finally added.

The Magically Expanding House: UPDATE III

Price changed from $639,000 to $609,000

Ouch. This is getting uglier by the day. They've knocked off $90,000 from the list price and still no action. I mean, psychologically how do you think that feels?

This flipper is still ahead of the game considering he paid only $405,000 in April 2010, but that seemingly fat $204,000 profit cushion isn't as comforting when you consider the 15 months of carrying costs, the substantial money he sunk into the flip ($80,000? $100,000?), and of course paying out commissions ($36,000).

It's not like he'll lose money on the deal -- I think even in the worst-case scenario he'll break even. But I'm sure he'd like to gain some profit for his trouble, so with the fall and winter months (and his one-year MLS anniversary) approaching it would be wise to keep cutting.

But with a listing history like this, would you characterize this flipper as "wise"?

Jul 08, 2011 - Price Changed $609,000

Jun 17, 2011 - Price Changed $639,000

May 27, 2011 - Listed (Active) $649,000

May 27, 2011 - Delisted (Cancelled)
May 17, 2011 - Price Changed
May 09, 2011 - Price Changed
Apr 25, 2011 - Price Changed
Mar 30, 2011 - Price Changed
Mar 04, 2011 - Relisted (Active)
Mar 04, 2011 - Delisted (Hold)
Mar 04, 2011 - Relisted (Active)
Mar 03, 2011 - Delisted
Mar 02, 2011 - Listed
Nov 14, 2010 - Delisted (Expired)
Oct 05, 2010 - Price Changed
Sep 27, 2010 - Price Changed
Aug 27, 2010 - Price Changed
Jul 15, 2010 - Listed (Active)

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Price changed from $659,000 to $649,000

How's that market chasing workin' out for ya?

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Price changed from $675,000 to $669,500

This is actually the second price reduction in the last four weeks ($30,000 lopped off so far). Will it be enough to for this flipper to make money on his lipstick-on-a-pig makeover?

Well, considering the census bureau reported that homes for sale are currently the lowest they've been since 1967 (yes, you read that correctly), they might find an impatient, frustrated buyer willing to overpay.

For this kind of scratch I think a buyer can do way better, but in this inventory-free environment nothing really surprises me anymore.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++




ADDRESS: 4512 East VERMONT St, Long Beach, CA 90814
ASKING PRICE: $699,900
BEDS: 3
BATHS: 2.75
SQ. FT.: 1,500
$/SQ. FT.: $467
LOT SIZE: 4,735 Sq. Ft.
YEAR BUILT: 1948
COMMUNITY: Belmont Heights/Alamitos Heights
MLS#: P772185
ON REDFIN: 4 days
DOWN PAYMENT: $140,000
INCOME REQUIREMENT (3.5x): $160,000
MONTHLY NUT: $3,700
DESCRIPTION: Remodeled 3 bedroom 2 3/4 bath Home with Contemporary Open Floor Plan and New Laminate Floors throughout. Light & Bright Living Room w/ Venetian Plaster Fireplace opens to Formal Dining Room. New Kitchen w/ Granite Counters, Pantry, & Stainless Steel Appliances including Gas Cooktop, Oven, Dishwasher, & Breakfast Bar opens to Dining Area and to spacious Family room which overlooks NEW Wooden deck with view of the Private Peaceful Backyard. Spacious Master Suite with a New Bathroom with custom flooring, Skylight tube, Vanity & oversized shower w/ seamless shower doors. 2 other custom remodeled bathrooms. There are many other NEW features such as Roof, Copper Plumbing, Tankless Water Heater, Ceiling Insulation, 2 Separate Heating systems, Doors, Paint, Top of the line Designer Sinks & Fixtures, Sod, Sprinklers, Drip System, and some Windows. Opportunity Knocks, Don't miss this Gorgeous Belmont Heights Home!!

Hooray For Intermittent Title Case!

Our featured property was purchased last April for $405,000, and now this flipper is trying to get his mitts on the $294,900 in profits he so richly deserves.

Now, to be fair, in 2010 this place was a certified turd pile:

Woof.

But, as with all flippers, the important question is whether this kitchen is worth the nearly $300,000 premium over the probate sale price:

"But El Bee, clearly they did more work than just the kitchen."

Really? Prove it.

Because although the listing description mentions a laundry list of desirable amenities and upgrades, these are the only other photos:

That's right, friends. A $300,000 markup and only four photos in the whole fucking listing.

I mean, how incompetent do you have to be to dump a bunch of money into flipping a property, jack up the price by hundreds of thousands of dollars, boisterously crow about all the upgrades and renovations, and then fail to, you know, actually include pictures of what you're trying to sell?

And please note that for $700,000 you don't even get a goddamn refrigerator. The balls on this guy.

I'm also curious about something I saw in the description from the 2010 probate listing: "Detached garage. Two rooms off garage that were previously used as additional bedroom and study."

So, since the garage is detached, and these two rooms are off the detached garage, does that mean these rooms are detached from the main house?

The reason I ask is because the public records (and the 2010 listing) clearly indicate this house is a 1-bedroom/1-bath spanning only 888 square feet, but the flipper's new listing is a 3/2.75 clocking in at 1,500. How did this house magically sprout an extra 612 squares?

It appears this dude is trying to include the two rooms off the garage in the total square footage. It's worth noting that if you calculated the price per square foot according to legally confirmed figures in the county assessor's records, the current (and relatively palatable) $467 per square foot would jump to a whopping $788! Motive, anyone?

That seems really fishy. If you're thinking of plunking down nearly three-quarters of a million dollars for this place (HAHAHAHAHA), definitely do your homework and ask the right questions.

Assuming the 1,500 square feet is somehow legitimate, I think a minor price reduction will garner a sale. It's on a relatively big lot in a prime area, has a wealth of upgrades (allegedly), and I think a working couple, forced to wait five years for this massive housing bubble to deflate and return prices to reasonable levels, will look around at the dearth of quality Long Beach inventory and simply bite the bullet and overpay for this flip job.

I myself would feel nauseous paying nearly $300,000 for upgrades that cost, at most, $120,000, but that's just me.

UPDATE: Listing photos finally added.

The Magically Expanding House: UPDATE II

Price changed from $659,000 to $649,000

How's that market chasing workin' out for ya?

The Magically Expanding House: UPDATE

Price changed from $675,000 to $669,500

This is actually the second price reduction in the last four weeks ($30,000 lopped off so far). Will it be enough to for this flipper to make money on his lipstick-on-a-pig makeover?

Well, considering the census bureau reported that homes for sale are currently the lowest they've been since 1967 (yes, you read that correctly), they might find an impatient, frustrated buyer willing to overpay.

For this kind of scratch I think a buyer can do way better, but in this inventory-free environment nothing really surprises me anymore.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++




ADDRESS: 4512 East VERMONT St, Long Beach, CA 90814
ASKING PRICE: $699,900
BEDS: 3
BATHS: 2.75
SQ. FT.: 1,500
$/SQ. FT.: $467
LOT SIZE: 4,735 Sq. Ft.
YEAR BUILT: 1948
COMMUNITY: Belmont Heights/Alamitos Heights
MLS#: P772185
ON REDFIN: 4 days
DOWN PAYMENT: $140,000
INCOME REQUIREMENT (3.5x): $160,000
MONTHLY NUT: $3,700
DESCRIPTION: Remodeled 3 bedroom 2 3/4 bath Home with Contemporary Open Floor Plan and New Laminate Floors throughout. Light & Bright Living Room w/ Venetian Plaster Fireplace opens to Formal Dining Room. New Kitchen w/ Granite Counters, Pantry, & Stainless Steel Appliances including Gas Cooktop, Oven, Dishwasher, & Breakfast Bar opens to Dining Area and to spacious Family room which overlooks NEW Wooden deck with view of the Private Peaceful Backyard. Spacious Master Suite with a New Bathroom with custom flooring, Skylight tube, Vanity & oversized shower w/ seamless shower doors. 2 other custom remodeled bathrooms. There are many other NEW features such as Roof, Copper Plumbing, Tankless Water Heater, Ceiling Insulation, 2 Separate Heating systems, Doors, Paint, Top of the line Designer Sinks & Fixtures, Sod, Sprinklers, Drip System, and some Windows. Opportunity Knocks, Don't miss this Gorgeous Belmont Heights Home!!

Hooray For Intermittent Title Case!

Our featured property was purchased last April for $405,000, and now this flipper is trying to get his mitts on the $294,900 in profits he so richly deserves.

Now, to be fair, in 2010 this place was a certified turd pile:

Woof.

But, as with all flippers, the important question is whether this kitchen is worth the nearly $300,000 premium over the probate sale price:

"But El Bee, clearly they did more work than just the kitchen."

Really? Prove it.

Because although the listing description mentions a laundry list of desirable amenities and upgrades, these are the only other photos:

That's right, friends. A $300,000 markup and only four photos in the whole fucking listing.

I mean, how incompetent do you have to be to dump a bunch of money into flipping a property, jack up the price by hundreds of thousands of dollars, boisterously crow about all the upgrades and renovations, and then fail to, you know, actually include pictures of what you're trying to sell?

And please note that for $700,000 you don't even get a goddamn refrigerator. The balls on this guy.

I'm also curious about something I saw in the description from the 2010 probate listing: "Detached garage. Two rooms off garage that were previously used as additional bedroom and study."

So, since the garage is detached, and these two rooms are off the detached garage, does that mean these rooms are detached from the main house?

The reason I ask is because the public records (and the 2010 listing) clearly indicate this house is a 1-bedroom/1-bath spanning only 888 square feet, but the flipper's new listing is a 3/2.75 clocking in at 1,500. How did this house magically sprout an extra 612 squares?

It appears this dude is trying to include the two rooms off the garage in the total square footage. It's worth noting that if you calculated the price per square foot according to legally confirmed figures in the county assessor's records, the current (and relatively palatable) $467 per square foot would jump to a whopping $788! Motive, anyone?

That seems really fishy. If you're thinking of plunking down nearly three-quarters of a million dollars for this place (HAHAHAHAHA), definitely do your homework and ask the right questions.

Assuming the 1,500 square feet is somehow legitimate, I think a minor price reduction will garner a sale. It's on a relatively big lot in a prime area, has a wealth of upgrades (allegedly), and I think a working couple, forced to wait five years for this massive housing bubble to deflate and return prices to reasonable levels, will look around at the dearth of quality Long Beach inventory and simply bite the bullet and overpay for this flip job.

I myself would feel nauseous paying nearly $300,000 for upgrades that cost, at most, $120,000, but that's just me.

UPDATE: Listing photos finally added.

The Magically Expanding House

ADDRESS: 4512 East VERMONT St, Long Beach, CA 90814
ASKING PRICE: $699,900
BEDS: 3
BATHS: 2.75
SQ. FT.: 1,500
$/SQ. FT.: $467
LOT SIZE: 4,735 Sq. Ft.
YEAR BUILT: 1948
COMMUNITY: Belmont Heights/Alamitos Heights
MLS#: P772185
ON REDFIN: 4 days
DOWN PAYMENT: $140,000
INCOME REQUIREMENT (3.5x): $160,000
MONTHLY NUT: $3,700
DESCRIPTION: Remodeled 3 bedroom 2 3/4 bath Home with Contemporary Open Floor Plan and New Laminate Floors throughout. Light & Bright Living Room w/ Venetian Plaster Fireplace opens to Formal Dining Room. New Kitchen w/ Granite Counters, Pantry, & Stainless Steel Appliances including Gas Cooktop, Oven, Dishwasher, & Breakfast Bar opens to Dining Area and to spacious Family room which overlooks NEW Wooden deck with view of the Private Peaceful Backyard. Spacious Master Suite with a New Bathroom with custom flooring, Skylight tube, Vanity & oversized shower w/ seamless shower doors. 2 other custom remodeled bathrooms. There are many other NEW features such as Roof, Copper Plumbing, Tankless Water Heater, Ceiling Insulation, 2 Separate Heating systems, Doors, Paint, Top of the line Designer Sinks & Fixtures, Sod, Sprinklers, Drip System, and some Windows. Opportunity Knocks, Don't miss this Gorgeous Belmont Heights Home!!

Hooray For Intermittent Title Case!

Our featured property was purchased last April for $405,000, and now this flipper is trying to get his mitts on the $294,900 in profits he so richly deserves.

Now, to be fair, in 2010 this place was a certified turd pile:

Woof.

But, as with all flippers, the important question is whether this kitchen is worth the nearly $300,000 premium over the probate sale price:

"But El Bee, clearly they did more work than just the kitchen."

Really? Prove it.

Because although the listing description mentions a laundry list of desirable amenities and upgrades, these are the only other photos:

That's right, friends. A $300,000 markup and only four photos in the whole fucking listing.

I mean, how incompetent do you have to be to dump a bunch of money into flipping a property, jack up the price by hundreds of thousands of dollars, boisterously crow about all the upgrades and renovations, and then fail to, you know, actually include pictures of what you're trying to sell?

And please note that for $700,000 you don't even get a goddamn refrigerator. The balls on this guy.

I'm also curious about something I saw in the description from the 2010 probate listing: "Detached garage. Two rooms off garage that were previously used as additional bedroom and study."

So, since the garage is detached, and these two rooms are off the detached garage, does that mean these rooms are detached from the main house?

The reason I ask is because the public records (and the 2010 listing) clearly indicate this house is a 1-bedroom/1-bath spanning only 888 square feet, but the flipper's new listing is a 3/2.75 clocking in at 1,500. How did this house magically sprout an extra 612 squares?

It appears this dude is trying to include the two rooms off the garage in the total square footage. It's worth noting that if you calculated the price per square foot according to legally confirmed figures in the county assessor's records, the current (and relatively palatable) $467 per square foot would jump to a whopping $788! Motive, anyone?

That seems really fishy. If you're thinking of plunking down nearly three-quarters of a million dollars for this place (HAHAHAHAHA), definitely do your homework and ask the right questions.

Assuming the 1,500 square feet is somehow legitimate, I think a minor price reduction will garner a sale. It's on a relatively big lot in a prime area, has a wealth of upgrades (allegedly), and I think a working couple, forced to wait five years for this massive housing bubble to deflate and return prices to reasonable levels, will look around at the dearth of quality Long Beach inventory and simply bite the bullet and overpay for this flip job.

I myself would feel nauseous paying nearly $300,000 for upgrades that cost, at most, $120,000, but that's just me.

UPDATE: Listing photos finally added.

Inventory Update

That's down 3% just between September and October! Wow.

And the result?

A greed-driven divergence between List vs. Sold price per square foot.

That's what happens when all but the dumbest, most delusional sellers take their ball and go home and wait for the market to "return to normal." Current sellers know there's no quality inventory out there and it makes them cocky and emboldened.

As we enter the winter months we'll see if that approach pays off.

Bungling Buffoon Badly Burned by "Bottom" Buying: FINAL UPDATE

Things have been nuttier than squirrel shit around here, so forgive the lack of posts. I wish I could say things will mellow out soon, but that's not the case.

Anyhow, this condo ended up selling in May for just under full asking price. That represents a loss of about -$80,000 after commissions. Wow. Losing your entire cash down payment is one expensive way to find out all the 2008 bottom callers were dead wrong.

You could have saved yourself some serious loot by reading this blog.

What's interesting is that in April the REO from the same post also sold...for only $326,000. Now, we don't know the condition of that bank-owned unit, so it may not be apples to apples, but I am curious why the bank approved $395,000 for Unit G2 when Unit H1 -- an identically sized unit in the same building -- sold for a whopping $70,000 less just a month earlier.

Unless H1 was a complete dump, it looks like the new owner of G2 is already in the hole. Ouch.

Look, although I think he waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay overpaid for this outdated apartment relative to what it's actually worth, I am on record as saying I really like this place. The listing doesn't show it (why, I have no clue), but the old listing shows it even has a little balcony off the dining room. Freakin' sweet. I'd live here in a hot minute, and I'd pay a premium to do so.

Just not as much as this dude.

Let's hope he doesn't need to sell in the near future lest he end up like his predecessor and eat a big fat loss for his impatience.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++


2662 East 2ND St Unit G2, Long Beach, 90803
Asking Price: $399,000
Beds: 2
Baths: 1.75
Sq. Ft.: 1,292
$/Sq. Ft.: $309
Year Built: 1966
MLS#: P727352
On Redfin: 2 days
HOA: $213
Down Payment: $80,000
Income Requirement: $114,000
Monthly Nut: $2,300
Description: Look no further! You have found one of the nicest and most spacious 2 bedrooms PLUS office currently available in Bluff Park. This END UNIT boasts gleaming hardwood floors, plantation shutters, a formal dining area, a huge remodeled eat-in kitchen with amazing storage and counterspace, a large guest room, updated guest bath with spa-like feel, oversized master bedroom with a dressing area and remodeled bath, french door enclosed sunny office area, and an in unit stackable WASHER/DRYER. Finally, no community laundry!!! The condo also comes with an oversized parking space and additional storage above the space in the garage. One of the nicest and well maintained buildings in Bluff Park or Belmont Heights you will show. Just a pleasure! Pets are allowed and you are just one block to the beach, bike path, Long Beach Museum of Art and fine retail and restaurants. The perfect elegant and stylish neighborhood. This is a standard sale!

The 2008 losers just keep stacking up. Today's seller was yet another sheep who allowed himself to be misled by CNBC hyper-bulls and his commission-hungry realtor that he was "buying at the bottom" in late '08.

And now, predictably, he is being sent to slaughter.

Just a short 19 months ago he foolishly purchased this apartment for $451,000 from a pre-bubble owner who paid a mere $165,500 ("Thanks for the bubble profits, noob!). Considering the original asking price was $469,750, I bet he thought he was pretty slick negotiating a whopping 4% discount.

Sadly, he abruptly discovered that his negotiating skills were about as strong as Corey Haim's willpower (too soon?). Armed with the sudden realization that he grossly overpaid in a rapidly declining market(!) and could never afford such a monstrous payment in the first place, he threw it on the MLS for an ego-deflating $399,000 and is now begging for the market's mercy.

After commissions, that represents a -$75,000 loss. Ouch.

Hey guy, is the smoke bothering you?

You know, from the smoldering crater where your bank account used to be?

The thing is, I quite like this place. I think it's an "updater," a term I first became familiar with by way of Jim the Realtor's site. It's certainly not a "fixer," (by the way, have you noticed that hardly any properties are listed as a "fixer upper" on Redfin anymore? Here is a prime example of someone in "fixer" denial) but it's also not quite "turn-key" and requires $10,000 to $15,000 in lipstick and blush.

For example, the kitchen:

HORF.

But add some new countertops and mild updating and you'll be set.

And the master bath, while not horrendous, could use some freshening up. You might disagree, but remember this is a property demanding $400,000!

Don't get me wrong, this place is pretty slick. Crown molding, nice floors, two bedrooms plus an office, reasonable square footage, in-unit laundry, only one common wall, decent HOA fee...pretty impressive.


Plus it's in a great neighborhood in close proximity to those killer Long Beach waves.

I'd live here, no doubt.

However, I would never pay this much. Way overpriced for what you get.

But that's just me. I think some buyers will find $309 per square foot reasonable given the location and sold comps. Unfortunately, they, just like our seller, will be catching a falling knife.

Let's look at the fundamentals:

Rent vs. Buy: I seriously doubt it rents for anywhere near $2,300, but I'm open to being proven wrong. But most buyers probably focus on after-tax payments, so let's call this one a wash for the typical (imprudent) buyer.

Local Incomes: The median income in this zip is $82,765, and I would imagine someone looking at these beach-close units would earn above median. Let's say $100,000 per year. At 3.5X income, they would need to make $91,000 to reasonably afford the mortgage (assuming 20% down). However, if you calculate the more conservative figure of House Price/3.5X income, they would need to pull in $114,000 per year. Could be a wash depending on how you calculate the numbers, but a conservative buyer would be stretching too thin to make the monthly nut.

Pre-bubble pricing/fundamental value: Here's where it gets tricky. If you apply a generous 4% per year appreciation to the 1999 sales price (and remove the bubble and ensuing crash), today this apartment would be worth $255,000. Add in a little extra for the few upgrades it does have, how well-maintained it is, and the fact that the '99 price seems low, and at most you're looking at a 2010 value of $300,000 - $310,000.

"El Bee, you're smoking Plymouth Rocks if you think this place is only worth $310,000!"

Well then I guess I'm not the only one because a certain bank is robbing its sister for a taste of that sweet, sweet crack too. In the very same building a lender is trying to offload a larger unit and believes it's only worth $325,000 (FYI that's a $100,000+ discount from the 2004 price!).

How the shit is our featured beggar--ERRR...seller going to compete with that? He's not. And that means this joint won't be a "standard sale" for long.

Assuming the REO isn't a complete turd pile inside (thanks for the photos, dick!), this is horrendously bad news for our overly optimistic seller. If the bank-owned property sells for full asking price (which, frankly, I'm surprised it hasn't already), then that comp guarantees our seller eats a -$150,000 loss instead of the -$75,000 hit he was initially worried about.

How pissed do you suppose the residents are at that dastardly bank?

Anyhow, this dummy listened to the wrong people and thought he could beat the odds. But now he's just going to get beat down. Just like pretty much every other 2008 "bottom buyer" who tries to sell today. If only they had been readers of this blog.

Look, if you ignored my (absolutely correct) prediction that prices would continue to slide and bought during the last two years, I'm not trying to pick on you. There are a million reasons to buy in a declining market and a million more ways to fudge the numbers to justify it. Hell, I'm ready to get on with my life too!

But if you did your homework and paid close to rental parity, got a fixed-rate 30-year mortgage, have a healthy emergency fund, can reasonably afford your payments, and absolutely adore the place you live, then you'll be able to ride this thing out just fine -- and get to live in a house you love in the meantime.

But if you bought way before the bottom like this dude and want to sell in today's environment, just know that you are in neck-deep in shit and have no one to blame but yourself.

Bungling Buffoon Badly Burned by "Bottom" Buying

2662 East 2ND St Unit G2, Long Beach, 90803
Asking Price: $399,000
Beds: 2
Baths: 1.75
Sq. Ft.: 1,292
$/Sq. Ft.: $309
Year Built: 1966
MLS#: P727352
On Redfin: 2 days
HOA: $213
Down Payment: $80,000
Income Requirement: $114,000
Monthly Nut: $2,300
Description: Look no further! You have found one of the nicest and most spacious 2 bedrooms PLUS office currently available in Bluff Park. This END UNIT boasts gleaming hardwood floors, plantation shutters, a formal dining area, a huge remodeled eat-in kitchen with amazing storage and counterspace, a large guest room, updated guest bath with spa-like feel, oversized master bedroom with a dressing area and remodeled bath, french door enclosed sunny office area, and an in unit stackable WASHER/DRYER. Finally, no community laundry!!! The condo also comes with an oversized parking space and additional storage above the space in the garage. One of the nicest and well maintained buildings in Bluff Park or Belmont Heights you will show. Just a pleasure! Pets are allowed and you are just one block to the beach, bike path, Long Beach Museum of Art and fine retail and restaurants. The perfect elegant and stylish neighborhood. This is a standard sale!

The 2008 losers just keep stacking up. Today's seller was yet another sheep who allowed himself to be misled by CNBC hyper-bulls and his commission-hungry realtor that he was "buying at the bottom" in late '08.

And now, predictably, he is being sent to slaughter.

Just a short 19 months ago he foolishly purchased this apartment for $451,000 from a pre-bubble owner who paid a mere $165,500 ("Thanks for the bubble profits, noob!). Considering the original asking price was $469,750, I bet he thought he was pretty slick negotiating a whopping 4% discount.

Sadly, he abruptly discovered that his negotiating skills were about as strong as Corey Haim's willpower (too soon?). Armed with the sudden realization that he grossly overpaid in a rapidly declining market(!) and could never afford such a monstrous payment in the first place, he threw it on the MLS for an ego-deflating $399,000 and is now begging for the market's mercy.

After commissions, that represents a -$75,000 loss. Ouch.

Hey guy, is the smoke bothering you?

You know, from the smoldering crater where your bank account used to be?

The thing is, I quite like this place. I think it's an "updater," a term I first became familiar with by way of Jim the Realtor's site. It's certainly not a "fixer," (by the way, have you noticed that hardly any properties are listed as a "fixer upper" on Redfin anymore? Here is a prime example of someone in "fixer" denial) but it's also not quite "turn-key" and requires $10,000 to $15,000 in lipstick and blush.

For example, the kitchen:

HORF.

But add some new countertops and mild updating and you'll be set.

And the master bath, while not horrendous, could use some freshening up. You might disagree, but remember this is a property demanding $400,000!

Don't get me wrong, this place is pretty slick. Crown molding, nice floors, two bedrooms plus an office, reasonable square footage, in-unit laundry, only one common wall, decent HOA fee...pretty impressive.


Plus it's in a great neighborhood in close proximity to those killer Long Beach waves.

I'd live here, no doubt.

However, I would never pay this much. Way overpriced for what you get.

But that's just me. I think some buyers will find $309 per square foot reasonable given the location and sold comps. Unfortunately, they, just like our seller, will be catching a falling knife.

Let's look at the fundamentals:

Rent vs. Buy: I seriously doubt it rents for anywhere near $2,300, but I'm open to being proven wrong. But most buyers probably focus on after-tax payments, so let's call this one a wash for the typical (imprudent) buyer.

Local Incomes: The median income in this zip is $82,765, and I would imagine someone looking at these beach-close units would earn above median. Let's say $100,000 per year. At 3.5X income, they would need to make $91,000 to reasonably afford the mortgage (assuming 20% down). However, if you calculate the more conservative figure of House Price/3.5X income, they would need to pull in $114,000 per year. Could be a wash depending on how you calculate the numbers, but a conservative buyer would be stretching too thin to make the monthly nut.

Pre-bubble pricing/fundamental value: Here's where it gets tricky. If you apply a generous 4% per year appreciation to the 1999 sales price (and remove the bubble and ensuing crash), today this apartment would be worth $255,000. Add in a little extra for the few upgrades it does have, how well-maintained it is, and the fact that the '99 price seems low, and at most you're looking at a 2010 value of $300,000 - $310,000.

"El Bee, you're smoking Plymouth Rocks if you think this place is only worth $310,000!"

Well then I guess I'm not the only one because a certain bank is robbing its sister for a taste of that sweet, sweet crack too. In the very same building a lender is trying to offload a larger unit and believes it's only worth $325,000 (FYI that's a $100,000+ discount from the 2004 price!).

How the shit is our featured beggar--ERRR...seller going to compete with that? He's not. And that means this joint won't be a "standard sale" for long.

Assuming the REO isn't a complete turd pile inside (thanks for the photos, dick!), this is horrendously bad news for our overly optimistic seller. If the bank-owned property sells for full asking price (which, frankly, I'm surprised it hasn't already), then that comp guarantees our seller eats a -$150,000 loss instead of the -$75,000 hit he was initially worried about.

How pissed do you suppose the residents are at that dastardly bank?

Anyhow, this dummy listened to the wrong people and thought he could beat the odds. But now he's just going to get beat down. Just like pretty much every other 2008 "bottom buyer" who tries to sell today. If only they had been readers of this blog.

Look, if you ignored my (absolutely correct) prediction that prices would continue to slide and bought during the last two years, I'm not trying to pick on you. There are a million reasons to buy in a declining market and a million more ways to fudge the numbers to justify it. Hell, I'm ready to get on with my life too!

But if you did your homework and paid close to rental parity, got a fixed-rate 30-year mortgage, have a healthy emergency fund, can reasonably afford your payments, and absolutely adore the place you live, then you'll be able to ride this thing out just fine -- and get to live in a house you love in the meantime.

But if you bought way before the bottom like this dude and want to sell in today's environment, just know that you are in neck-deep in shit and have no one to blame but yourself.