Showing posts with label Ranchos. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ranchos. Show all posts

Tuesday, November 9, 2010

Inventory Update


That's down 3% just between September and October! Wow.

And the result?

A greed-driven divergence between List vs. Sold price per square foot.

That's what happens when all but the dumbest, most delusional sellers take their ball and go home and wait for the market to "return to normal." Current sellers know there's no quality inventory out there and it makes them cocky and emboldened.

As we enter the winter months we'll see if that approach pays off.

Friday, June 5, 2009

Long Beach Foreclosure Numbers

From RealtyTrac.com, here are some recent Long Beach foreclosure numbers (starting with the most distressed):

90802: 569

90813: 525

90810: 472

90806: 439

90804: 373

90815: 180

90803: 132

90814: 95


As you can see, downtown is getting absolutely inundated with foreclosures. Not surprisingly, downtown and the shadier areas of LB are experiencing a much larger influx of bank-owned properties and the resultant downward pressure on prices.

Better neighborhoods (Naples, Belmont Shore, Belmont Heights) are faring MUCH better on the foreclosure front, which explains the stickiness of prices there.

And yes, there will be added pressure in 90803 and 90814 during the next few years as "Classy-People Loans" implode. However, don't get your hopes up for $150 per square foot in The Shore. The Alt-A/Option ARM disaster will take YEARS to play out and we've already seen how skilled banks are at delaying REOs from hitting the market and how the .gov encourages banks to mark these troubled loans to fantasyland valuations.

Plus, unlike the crappy zips where any sub-prime knucklehead suddenly became eligible for home purchase, the good 'hoods have more established owners with equity. These people (although there are probably not many who resisted hitting the housing ATM) are MUCH less likely to bail simply because they're underwater--they actually have something to lose.

Not so for those who squeezed into Belmont Shore, Belmont Heights, and Naples during the Pick-a-Payment, no-money-down, live-way-beyond-your-means bubble years. I have no idea how many of those "owners" there are in the nicer areas, but you can bet your bottom (tax) dollar they'll moonwalk away from their obligations the second they realize the mid- to upper-tier housing market isn't coming back anytime soon.

Tuesday, May 19, 2009

Failed Flip in the Ranchos


Address: 7131 E Mezzanine Way, 90808
Asking Price: $645,000
Year Built: 1953
Size: 3 beds, 2 baths, 1,130 sq. ft.
$/Sq. Ft.: $571
Purchase price: $599,000
Purchase date: 4/2007
MLS#: P686990
On Redfin: 8 days
Down Payment: $129,000
Monthly Payment: $3,400
Income Requirement: $184,000
Description: This immaculate, authentic Cliff May Rancho has been extensively refurbished by its owners, and represents the bright, open, indoor-outdoor lifestyle that Cliff May intended in his residential designs. The numerous upgrades to this home include: a custom kitchen with hand built birch cabinetry, full extension glide drawers, and GE profile appliances; new birch paneling throughout the interior and new interior birch doors, all built to original specs; remodeled bathrooms with stainless steel fixtures; an upgraded electrical system with 200 amp panel; and, newer furnace and water heater. This home sits in a quiet interior location within the tract, set back from the street for privacy and serenity. The entire neighborhood is bordered by beautiful El Dorado Park and Nature Center, which has 800 acres of fields, streams, lakes and paths.

DAAAAAAAAAAAAAMN! This Cliff May house is freakin' awesome. I love it!

They did such an amazing job of staging it, I would be tempted to buy it fully furnished. Sure, this house is tiny (I mean, how do you even cram three bedrooms into 1100 square feet? By the way, in laptop computer technology, "mezzanine" means "a sheet of plastic insulating different parts of circuitry from each other in cramped environments.") but overall I'm impressed with the house, the great listing description, and the photos (although that Thunderbird is an early 60s model and misaligned with the 50s theme of the house but I still give them an "A" for effort).


This flipper purchased in April 2007 for $599,000, which, frankly, is completely insane. But he saw potential for massive profits and with dollar signs shooting out of his retinas, he made his move. He obviously put a lot of money, time, and effort into tastefully updating the home while staying consistent with the Cliff May design themes. Unfortunately, he picked the worst possible time to sell.

You see, even if he was able to find a knife-catcher willing to pay this absurd asking price of $645,000, commissions alone would eat up $38,700, leaving a meager profit of $6,300 for his troubles. The only way this guy is walking away with any profit whatsoever is if the upgrades cost less than $6,300.

I guess he saved a few bucks by choosing cheap floors and hideous blue formica countertops (WTF?) for the kitchen...


...but still, I'm guessing these improvements, updates, and furniture set him back at least $60 grand.

That means, if a buyer decides to pay full asking price of $645k (the second most expensive house in the Ranchos by $5,000), the loss to the flipper will be at least -$92,000.

Brutal.

Worse yet, that doesn't include the carrying costs for two years of ownership, which would run about -$67,000. And that's after the tax benefit!

Ultimately, the total out-of-pocket cost of following his Flip This House-inspired dreams of real estate riches will likely be -$159,000.

Ouch.



Those losses, of course, assume this flipper can find a knife-catcher foolish enough to shell out for this stylish, but cramped and overpriced homestead. Not going to happen.

And here's why. First, although we have seen a wide discrepancy in Long Beach between the asking per square foot price versus the ppsft homes actually sell for, in 90808 that's not the case:


It's pretty clear that most homes in 90808 are listing, and selling, for $340 per square on average. This dude is trying to unload for $571 per square for one of the smallest Cliff May models. Yeah, good luck with that.

Second, this nearby seller's Cliff May house is arguably just as nice as 7131 Mezzanine (seriously, take out the modern/retro furniture and they're pretty similar) and has 200 extra square feet, an extra bedroom, and nice hardwood floors.


And the Kallin house, rotting on the market for 108 days, is asking $30,000 less!

In other words, the Mezzanine flipper is in deep shit if he doesn't start pricing competitively. Like, yesterday.

When property values inevitably come down to earth and align with local incomes (a healthy $82,431 in this zip), I would be all over a house like this, as small as it is. Until then, the longer this guy waits to lower the price, the more crushing the monthly carrying costs will be, and the further into the hole he will go on this well-executed, but poorly timed, flip.

Hat tip to Carl