Showing posts with label OC is a Bargain. Show all posts
Showing posts with label OC is a Bargain. Show all posts

Saturday, March 24, 2012

Schadenfreude: UPDATE

In one week this turd waffle will celebrate the three-year anniversary of trying to unload his over-improved albatross.

What a tit.

Although at least now I see why he was so reluctant to post interior photos:
207 NIETO Ave, Long Beach, CA 90803
Poltergeist pipe!

Good luck putting up crown moulding, Chachi.

And look at this sad-ass kitchen:
207 NIETO Ave, Long Beach, CA 90803
Is this a playhouse? Where the hell do you even buy those miniature appliances? The microwave looks monstrous compared to that lil' Easy-Bake Oven below.

Yes, yes, I'm sure that's a photo from the rental unit, but it's still funny looking. I mean, how much square footage are you really saving?

This dumbass needs to just throw in the towel. I guess compared to the 2009 asking price of $1,295,000, begging for $979,500 seems downright reasonable.

But this price is still way out of line with reality. The thing I have never understood about these delusional sellers is how, after years on the market begging for someone to buy their property, the thought never goes through their mind that maybe, just maybe, the price is too high.

Even markets as artificially supported as ours have a ruthless efficiency about them: Reasonably priced stuff sells, overpriced stuff sits. It's the same for cars, dishwashers, used music equipment on eBay...things priced to sell, sell.

Insane price per square foot ($639) aside, I'm betting the proximity to that huge apartment building next door, the nearby alley, and the BofA parking lot are keeping buyers away. Not to mention how crazy it is to ask a million bucks for a house with three bedrooms and only one bathroom.

Alas, the parade of delusion marches on.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Post from 4/2009:

Now that the real estate bubble has burst, there is plenty of schadenfreude to go around. Those who were priced out of the market, refused to participate in the irrational exuberance, or who didn't buy into the frenzy just out of dumb luck, are all watching with amazement (and yes, a bit of glee) as the house of cards burns to the ground.

Personally, I was made to feel like a fool for not buying an overpriced house in 2005 and had to endure condescending conversations with people who barely made it out of high school but were now rolling in fake "equity" and looking down on me for being a lowly renter. And when I started this blog I was castigated further for pointing out the truth and documenting the all-too-obvious housing bubble implosion. So I have to admit that many aspects of the housing crash bring a smile to my face.

Some say it's wrong to take pleasure in others' misery. In certain circumstances that's true, but that won't dissuade me from feeling all warm and fuzzy inside when some idiot flipper, who helped bid up housing prices beyond the reach of hardworking families, mistimes the market and loses his ass. That makes me smile.

Or when an arrogant seller, willfully ignorant of reality, slaps an insane WTF price on his house and refuses to even make counter offers on what they consider "lowball," "offensive" offers. Then, once they realize they're in a position where they can no longer afford their monstrous mortgage and lower the price, it's too little, too late. And they end up chopping tens of thousands (or hundreds of thousands, depending) off the price...all to no avail. The market has long passed them by and they are punished for their greed with the haunting realization that they just cost themselves an extra $100,000 by refusing to deal when they had the chance. That tickles me pink.

Obviously the schadenfreude is tempered by the fact that you and I ultimately will pick up the tab for this mess (enjoy my money, CitiBank!), but still.

And there are limits to how far the schadenfreude should extend. People are always quick to drag out the (incredibly rare) exception of the person who was diagnosed with cancer and had to use their mortgage money for chemo treatments. OBVIOUSLY nobody should take great pleasure in that person losing their (our) house.

And I have some friends in shaky situations, and I don't want to see anything bad happen to them. However, I also don't want anyone--even my own friends and family--to get the impression they can live well beyond their means without very steep consequences.

And guess what? Other than a ding on a credit score, the worst thing that happens to people that lose a house is they rent. Nobody is being put on a rack and having their arms torn out of their sockets--you just rent. You still have shelter. There is no shame in that and, as is so clear now, renting was the right move all along during this unprecedented run up in housing prices.

My point is, if you're a person angry at those that appear to take pleasure in others' failures, just take a look at this listing and tell me you don't want these sellers to fail, and fail MISERABLY.



Address: 207 Nieto Ave, 90803
Asking Price: $1,295,000
Year Built: 1924
Size: 3 beds, 2 baths, 1,533 sq. ft.
$/Sq. Ft.: $845
Purchase price: N/A
Purchase date: N/A
MLS#: P681498
On Redfin: 22 days
Down Payment: $259,000
Monthly Payment: $8,000 (@6.75% jumbo)
Income Requirement: $370,000
Description: California classic expanded to include a 2 br./1 bath residence with large master suite and an additional 1 br./1 bath deluxe apartment above a large 2 car 1 bath garage, housed in a separate building. Resort Living at its finest! Enter seclusion through solid Brazilian mahogany gates as the protection of hand-laid brick privacy fencing surrounds you; yet, the heart of the shore's action is only steps away! A passage of spectacular stoneware planters and exotic fishtail palms leads to a courtyard w/2 deep-seating patio conversation areas, an outdoor kitchen, fountain, and bbq. Premium Super-Krete garden-stone graces the deck. From copper/galvanized plumbing, bronze emergency shut off, secured storage area, tank-less hot water, and bronze solar window screens, to the large Mediterranean dining-set w/ umbrella for outdoor entertaining, the exquisite charm & meticulous attention to detail of this Hacienda Oasis is amazing! Design elegance that translates into near Zero-Need-Upkeep.

$845 per square foot? FUCK YOU. DIE IN A FIRE.

See, doesn't that feel good?

And what exactly is wrong with the realtor that they include only five photos of the house, and THREE random "Scenes of Long Beach." Tell me exactly what this has to do with your listing:



How about a picture of, oh, I dunno, THE FREAKING KITCHEN?! Is it too much to ask you to include a snap of one of the bathrooms? This is what you think sells houses?



WTF? If those idiotic waste-of-bandwidth photos are what sell houses, then here are a few more you should definitely add to the listing:







What a dolt.

And it's worth mentioning that out of the five actual house-related photos, only one, count 'em, ONE, is an interior shot:



Gee, thanks.

And the others are as useless a snooze button on a smoke alarm:







Judging by the realtor's marketing "skills" I'm going to take a stab in the dark here and guess that their business isn't doing too well these days. Just a hunch.

And then there's the price. Let's consider what this seller sees all around him to better gauge how they arrived at their insane asking price. After all, maybe Belmont Shore is holding up better than we think. Let's see:

On a price per square foot basis, this is by far the most expensive listing in ALL of Belmont Shore. The average in BS is $478/Sq. Ft.

Of the handful of BS homes lucky enough to have sold in the last four months, the most expensive went for exactly half of this asking price.

Even the most optimistic rainbow-bolts-shooting-from-your-rectum estimate from the always laughable Zillow.com is $787,860.


So how on earth do you explain the decision to ask $1,295,000?!

AVARICE.

Pure and simple.

And sometimes the only way to respond to this level of greed is to wish misery, failure, and abject financial ruination upon them to teach them a lesson about letting the worst in human nature take over.

Thursday, February 2, 2012

WOODEN TEETH: FINAL UPDATE

Sold on 02/01/12 - $165,000

At $155 per square foot, that is less than half the original asking price. Way to hold out for top dollar!

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Since there is no new inventory to speak of, out of "Where Are They Now?" curiosity I've been revisiting past Long Beach Housing Blog properties. Although most RE in the LBC victims--ERRR...featured sellers have since pulled their properties after unsuccessfully pursuing insane wishing prices ("Well, I'm not going to just give it away!"), a few deluded soldiers continue marching on.

Like this idiot:
732 North WASHINGTON Pl, Long Beach, CA 90813
This dreadful piece of doodie is now entering its FOURTH YEAR on the market. The good news is that after more than 1,100 days of wholly ridiculous prices and slack-jawed market chasing, this dolt seems to be finally waking up to reality. To wit:

Jan 05, 2011 Relisted - $223,000 ($210 per square foot)

But take another look at the photos and ask yourself if $223,000 is even that great of a price for this shit hole. Even if it was asking $50,000 -- the 1981 sales price -- I still don't think it's worth it. In addition to the property taxes and insurance, you have to factor in the significant (and mandatory) teardown and rebuilding costs. But look at the shitty lot and horrible neighborhood -- is that really where you want to build your dream home?

Exactly.

Still overpriced.

At this point I'm beginning to wonder if any price would garner a sale.

But, thanks to foreclosure moratoriums and can-kicking HAMP HAFA HARP BARF FART programs, properties like these are about all we've got. Right now in Long Beach we literally have the cream of the crop as far as wildly delusional sellers. The chaff has already been separated from the market and now we're left with the real kooks.

It's like if you took a stadium full of Raiders fans and systematically began whittling them down:

"All fans who have completed high school or college, please leave the stadium."

"Okay, now everyone with a job please head home."

"Anyone with a credit score above 500 please head for the exits."

"All of those without criminal records, please disperse."


Imagine what you'd be left with! That stadium would be the scariest goddamn place on earth. And sometimes I feel like most of the current Long Beach sellers are those scary, unstable nutjobs.

Think about it:

Longtime owners with assets, equity and/or stable, fixed-rate loans (like this guy) don't need to sell, and so they won't. They pull their properties off the market and we never see them again (it may seem like a good thing to get fair-weather sellers off the MLS, but they are sometimes the most willing to deal because they have equity and will still clear a huge profit if they decide to get real).

Most ticking time-bomb mortgages already blew up and went back to the banks, but the few remaining with resetting and recasting mortgages are busy playing the loan-mod, extend-and-pretend lottery. They (like
this moron) are most definitely distressed sellers, but they are not really on the market because they will game the system for as long as they can before their loans explode and they moonwalk away (or a miracle buyer bails them out of their foolishness).

As we all know, short sales are not actually for sale -- that inventory is technically on the MLS, but given the length of time it takes for banks to approve short sales (not an accident), you might as well check the "Exclude Short Sales" box on your Redfin searches (I sure as hell do). Short sales are just a way for banks to delay recognizing losses associated with foreclosure and prevent the property from falling apart (keeping a deadbeat in the place is better than letting it sit abandoned) in the meantime. Short sales (like
this fool, at 481 days) may technically be on the market, but in reality they have left the stadium.

You can also disregard listings of those who overpaid during the peak but are gainfully employed. They are severely underwater but can still make their mortgage payment if they really stretch themselves. The tell is they ask peak pricing plus exactly enough to cover sales commissions (like
this guy or this dummy), or they are juuuuust below their peak purchase price but after a few reductions have been stuck at the same price for months because further cuts would mean writing a big check at closing or becoming a short sale (like this dreamer). These house-poor suckers won't get anywhere near peak pricing, but they have no choice but to hope for a miracle because they're stretched too thin and have absolutely no room to negotiate. They are technically on the MLS, but they, too, have left the stadium.

So really we're left with only a handful buyers who actually intend to, and can (financially speaking) sell, who don't budge on price because they know they're in the power position, and a mob of delusional die hards at 500+ days on market (like this asshole), populating the MLS with their insane wishing prices and demands for nothing short of jackpot-sized prices.

It's a sad state of affairs out there. Realtors I've spoken to believe inventory will start coming back on the market in March (the "seasonal" thing never really made sense to me in SoCal -- sure, in Des Moines I get that people don't want to go house shopping in January, but it's 75 degrees in Long Beach! I would love nothing more than to check out houses on a day like today!). Sure, inventory might pick up in Spring, but the real question is: What types of sellers will they be?
Long Beach number of homes for sale graph

I guess we'll find out.

What are you seeing out there?

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
The price was "$299,000" and changed to "$269,000"

Days on Market: 911

NEVER FORGET!

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Well, this is a fun way to start the new year:

The price was "$344,000" and changed to "$299,000"

By the way, this marks the THIRD YEAR on the MLS for this property. There are a lot of notable delusional greedtards in the LBC, but I think this guy, given that he paid $50,000 ages ago yet is still too dumb fucking stupid to price realistically ("I'm not going to just give it away!") and take the money and run, earns the Official RE in the LBC Eternal Shitbird Award:


I think it's especially appropriate given this photo:




+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++


732 N Washington Pl, CA 90813
Price: $344,000
Beds: 2
Baths: 1
Sq. Ft.: 1,064
$/Sq. Ft.: $323
Lot Size: 3,850 Sq. Ft.
Property Type: Single Family Residence
Year Built: 1905
MLS#: S514617
On Redfin: 630 days
Down Payment: $67,000
Income Requirement: $95,000
Monthly PITI: $2,100
Description: HUGE PRICE REDUCTION!!!Historical Craftsman w/loads of charm.Huge Formal LR,original features:hardwood floors,doors & hardware glass & brass doorknobs,kit with 'ice box' cabinetry,mosaic tile counter,coved ceilings,wrap around porch has been enclosed,orig sash windows,light fixtures,french doors.Oversized lot w/alley and street access.'Potters area off kit with washer and dryer hook-ups. Formal Dining room. 1 BR w/original built ins above closet, 2nd BR has double walk in closet. Bath has built in linen cabinet above tub. Tandem gar divided

"HUGE PRICE REDUCTION!!!"

JUDGING BY THE LOOKS OF THIS THING, YOU'RE GONNA NEED A LOT MORE!!!

Sweet mural. GONE!

Sweet kitchen. GONE!

No pics of the one bathroom, so you know what that means...GONE!

This realtor must have graduated from the Shaky McParkinson's School of Photography:



Really? 628 days to fix that shit and your potential buyers still get vertigo from viewing your listing? Clever.

The listing says "No Laundry in Unit" but that there are hook-ups in a "'Potters" area (a euphemism for "out-the-fuck-side"). That must be some kind of mistake.

Because there's no way someone is dumb fucking stupid enough to ask $344,000--nearly TEN TIMES the median income--in this awful neighborhood with no freaking laundry hook-ups in the house.

There's just no way.

Plus, the owners don't have a washer and dryer?! Just the hook-ups? Seriously, who the fuck lives here? The Swiss Family Slobinson?

But hey, at least it's got a "sleeping porch!" After viewing those interior photos, I think I'll take my chances sleeping outside.

This thing doesn't need fixing up, it needs a bulldozer.

This is a perfect candidate for Real Estate Intervention. The owner purchased this 104-year-old lean-to in 1981 for a paltry $50,000 ($47 per square foot, y'all!). In other words, with a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, this dump should be paid off in a year and a half.

Considering the interest rate was 17.5% in '81, I'm sure this owner refinanced during the last 28 years. But the point is, there have only been three price reductions in nearly two years. Even with refinances they still must have a truckload of equity--why not just cut the price and walk away with stacks of bubble cash?

Nah, forget that. Just keep doing what you're doing. And by "doing what you're doing" I mean napping on your sleeping porch, washing your loincloth in the bird bath, and making drinking water from your pee.

Friday, September 9, 2011

The Magically Expanding House: FINAL UPDATE

4512 East VERMONT St, Long Beach, CA 90814

Sold on 09/02/11 - $605,000

Well, that only took 400 days.

Look at this long, sad saga:

Sep 02, 2011 - Sold $605,000
Jul 15, 2011 - Pending (Backup Offers Accepted)
Jul 08, 2011 - Price Changed $609,000
Jun 17, 2011 - Price Changed $639,000
May 27, 2011 - Listed (Active) $649,000
May 27, 2011 - Delisted (Cancelled)
May 17, 2011 - Price Changed
May 09, 2011 - Price Changed
Apr 25, 2011 - Price Changed
Mar 30, 2011 - Price Changed
Mar 04, 2011 - Relisted (Active) $699,900
Mar 04, 2011 - Delisted (Hold)
Mar 04, 2011 - Relisted (Active)
Mar 03, 2011 - Delisted
Mar 02, 2011 - Listed
Nov 14, 2010 - Delisted (Expired)
Oct 05, 2010 - Price Changed
Sep 27, 2010 - Price Changed
Aug 27, 2010 - Price Changed
Jul 15, 2010 - Listed (Active)
Apr 14, 2010 - Sold $405,000

Hey, a $200,000 profit! This flipper must really know what he's doing!

Not so fast, punchy.

Setting aside the fact that flippers who know what they're doing actually, you know, flip houses instead of chasing the market down for 13 months, you need to delve a little deeper into his "profit" to determine how well he really did.

First, consider the carrying costs of roughly $28,000 while this thing languished on the market for more than a year. Second, he had to shell out $36,300 in sales commissions. Finally, I estimated the upgrades and repairs at about $120,000.

So he cleared roughly $420,000, for a true profit of a measly 15 grand. Sure, my renovation cost estimate could be too high, but when the list of upgrades includes landscaping, new bathrooms, windows, doors, roof, custom deck, granite counters, appliances, floors, tankless water heater, a new two-car garage and copper plumbing...I'm pretty confident in that price tag.

Remember, this is how the place used to look:
4512 East VERMONT St, Long Beach, CA 90814

Anyhow, the point is that it looks like the flipper -- who nearly became a flopper -- didn't walk away with much profit for all that work, stress and risk.

So, things didn't work out as planned for the seller. But what about the buyers?

Well, they paid $405 per square foot, which is pretty good for the Heights. And considering the aforementioned upgrades, they won't have to put a dime into the place for a long, long time (other than replacing those cheap-ass laminate floors). Plus, they locked in an insanely low interest rate, putting the total monthly nut at about $3,000. It's doubtful that this place rents for that much, but if you include tax write-offs, they have a very manageable payment likely lower than local rents.

Plus, even if they overpaid, what choice did they have? There ain't shit out there. Believe me, I've been looking like crazy and the inventory situation is downright pathetic.

Go ahead and do a Redfin search for Long Beach houses between $550,000 and $650,000. I count 12 houses in the Heights. Five are pending and two are short sales (one just clocked 343 days, the other is 205 -- obviously not for sale). So, basically this buyer had just five houses in the Heights to choose from.

FIVE.

It's ridiculous.

And now that the Super Summer Selling Season(tm) is over, I'm expecting inventory to decline even further. This is just how it's going to be for the next few years. It sucks, but artificially restricting supply is the only way to increase demand.

I got really close to buying a condo a few months back, but to get it I had to overpay -- and the seller and I knew it. The reason was because this unit was the only game in town. Other nearby condos were either inferior, short sales not really for sale, or dreamers with equity trying to get wishing prices (some of which are now pulling their listings until next spring).

Anyhow, because this condo had very little competition, the seller was in the power position and wouldn't come down far enough to get a deal done. The attitude was, "Where else you gonna go, pal?"

And they were right. I needed to put some mustard on the deal to make it happen.

But I just couldn't bring myself to knowingly overpay in such a soft economy. Values certainly aren't going up any time soon, but my concern was that they would continue to go down -- and I wanted my offer to reflect that and build in some cushion against further deflation.

So, the deal fell apart.

Worse yet, it's under contract now. I'm dying to find out how much it sells for. If it's close to my last offer, I'll be really bummed out. I'll kick myself for not throwing in a few more bucks just to get in there. If the sales price is way more than my offer, I won't have any regrets.

But hey, life goes on. Unless something crazy happens this winter with banks unloading inventory, I'll have to put homeownership on the back burner until next spring. Not the end of the world. The weather is great, the future is bright, and there are more important things in life.

UPDATE: Jim the Realtor had a related post today, Buyer Frustrations.

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Price changed from $639,000 to $609,000

Ouch. This is getting uglier by the day. They've knocked off $90,000 from the list price and still no action. I mean, psychologically how do you think that feels?

This flipper is still ahead of the game considering he paid only $405,000 in April 2010, but that seemingly fat $204,000 profit cushion isn't as comforting when you consider the 15 months of carrying costs, the substantial money he sunk into the flip ($80,000? $100,000?), and of course paying out commissions ($36,000).

It's not like he'll lose money on the deal -- I think even in the worst-case scenario he'll break even. But I'm sure he'd like to gain some profit for his trouble, so with the fall and winter months (and his one-year MLS anniversary) approaching it would be wise to keep cutting.

But with a listing history like this, would you characterize this flipper as "wise"?

Jul 08, 2011 - Price Changed $609,000
Jun 17, 2011 - Price Changed $639,000
May 27, 2011 - Listed (Active) $649,000
May 27, 2011 - Delisted (Cancelled)
May 17, 2011 - Price Changed
May 09, 2011 - Price Changed
Apr 25, 2011 - Price Changed
Mar 30, 2011 - Price Changed
Mar 04, 2011 - Relisted (Active)
Mar 04, 2011 - Delisted (Hold)
Mar 04, 2011 - Relisted (Active)
Mar 03, 2011 - Delisted
Mar 02, 2011 - Listed
Nov 14, 2010 - Delisted (Expired)
Oct 05, 2010 - Price Changed
Sep 27, 2010 - Price Changed
Aug 27, 2010 - Price Changed
Jul 15, 2010 - Listed (Active)



+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Price changed from $659,000 to $649,000

How's that market chasing workin' out for ya?

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Price changed from $675,000 to $669,500


This is actually the second price reduction in the last four weeks ($30,000 lopped off so far). Will it be enough to for this flipper to make money on his lipstick-on-a-pig makeover?

Well, considering the census bureau reported that homes for sale are currently the lowest they've been since 1967 (yes, you read that correctly), they might find an impatient, frustrated buyer willing to overpay.

For this kind of scratch I think a buyer can do way better, but in this inventory-free environment nothing really surprises me anymore.

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4512 East VERMONT St, Long Beach, CA 90814


ADDRESS: 4512 East VERMONT St, Long Beach, CA 90814
ASKING PRICE: $699,900
BEDS: 3
BATHS: 2.75
SQ. FT.: 1,500
$/SQ. FT.: $467
LOT SIZE: 4,735 Sq. Ft.
YEAR BUILT: 1948
COMMUNITY: Belmont Heights/Alamitos Heights
MLS#: P772185
ON REDFIN: 4 days
DOWN PAYMENT: $140,000
INCOME REQUIREMENT (3.5x): $160,000
MONTHLY NUT: $3,700
DESCRIPTION: Remodeled 3 bedroom 2 3/4 bath Home with Contemporary Open Floor Plan and New Laminate Floors throughout. Light & Bright Living Room w/ Venetian Plaster Fireplace opens to Formal Dining Room. New Kitchen w/ Granite Counters, Pantry, & Stainless Steel Appliances including Gas Cooktop, Oven, Dishwasher, & Breakfast Bar opens to Dining Area and to spacious Family room which overlooks NEW Wooden deck with view of the Private Peaceful Backyard. Spacious Master Suite with a New Bathroom with custom flooring, Skylight tube, Vanity & oversized shower w/ seamless shower doors. 2 other custom remodeled bathrooms. There are many other NEW features such as Roof, Copper Plumbing, Tankless Water Heater, Ceiling Insulation, 2 Separate Heating systems, Doors, Paint, Top of the line Designer Sinks & Fixtures, Sod, Sprinklers, Drip System, and some Windows. Opportunity Knocks, Don't miss this Gorgeous Belmont Heights Home!!

Hooray For Intermittent Title Case!

Our featured property was purchased last April for $405,000, and now this flipper is trying to get his mitts on the $294,900 in profits he so richly deserves.

Now, to be fair, in 2010 this place was a certified turd pile:
4512 East VERMONT St, Long Beach, CA 90814
Woof.

But, as with all flippers, the important question is whether this kitchen is worth the nearly $300,000 premium over the probate sale price:
4512 East VERMONT St, Long Beach, CA 90814

4512 East VERMONT St, Long Beach, CA 90814

4512 East VERMONT St, Long Beach, CA 90814
"But El Bee, clearly they did more work than just the kitchen."

Really? Prove it.

Because although the listing description mentions a laundry list of desirable amenities and upgrades, these are the only other photos:
That's right, friends. A $300,000 markup and only four photos in the whole fucking listing.

I mean, how incompetent do you have to be to dump a bunch of money into flipping a property, jack up the price by hundreds of thousands of dollars, boisterously crow about all the upgrades and renovations, and then fail to, you know, actually include pictures of what you're trying to sell?

And please note that for $700,000 you don't even get a goddamn refrigerator. The balls on this guy.

I'm also curious about something I saw in the description from the 2010 probate listing: "Detached garage. Two rooms off garage that were previously used as additional bedroom and study."

So, since the garage is detached, and these two rooms are off the detached garage, does that mean these rooms are detached from the main house?

The reason I ask is because the public records (and the 2010 listing) clearly indicate this house is a 1-bedroom/1-bath spanning only 888 square feet, but the flipper's new listing is a 3/2.75 clocking in at 1,500. How did this house magically sprout an extra 612 squares?

It appears this dude is trying to include the two rooms off the garage in the total square footage. It's worth noting that if you calculated the price per square foot according to legally confirmed figures in the county assessor's records, the current (and relatively palatable) $467 per square foot would jump to a whopping $788! Motive, anyone?

That seems really fishy. If you're thinking of plunking down nearly three-quarters of a million dollars for this place (HAHAHAHAHA), definitely do your homework and ask the right questions.

Assuming the 1,500 square feet is somehow legitimate, I think a minor price reduction will garner a sale. It's on a relatively big lot in a prime area, has a wealth of upgrades (allegedly), and I think a working couple, forced to wait five years for this massive housing bubble to deflate and return prices to reasonable levels, will look around at the dearth of quality Long Beach inventory and simply bite the bullet and overpay for this flip job.

I myself would feel nauseous paying nearly $300,000 for upgrades that cost, at most, $120,000, but that's just me.

UPDATE: Listing photos finally added.

Monday, July 11, 2011

The Magically Expanding House: UPDATE III

Price changed from $639,000 to $609,000

Ouch. This is getting uglier by the day. They've knocked off $90,000 from the list price and still no action. I mean, psychologically how do you think that feels?

This flipper is still ahead of the game considering he paid only $405,000 in April 2010, but that seemingly fat $204,000 profit cushion isn't as comforting when you consider the 15 months of carrying costs, the substantial money he sunk into the flip ($80,000? $100,000?), and of course paying out commissions ($36,000).

It's not like he'll lose money on the deal -- I think even in the worst-case scenario he'll break even. But I'm sure he'd like to gain some profit for his trouble, so with the fall and winter months (and his one-year MLS anniversary) approaching it would be wise to keep cutting.

But with a listing history like this, would you characterize this flipper as "wise"?

Jul 08, 2011 - Price Changed $609,000
Jun 17, 2011 - Price Changed $639,000
May 27, 2011 - Listed (Active) $649,000
May 27, 2011 - Delisted (Cancelled)
May 17, 2011 - Price Changed
May 09, 2011 - Price Changed
Apr 25, 2011 - Price Changed
Mar 30, 2011 - Price Changed
Mar 04, 2011 - Relisted (Active)
Mar 04, 2011 - Delisted (Hold)
Mar 04, 2011 - Relisted (Active)
Mar 03, 2011 - Delisted
Mar 02, 2011 - Listed
Nov 14, 2010 - Delisted (Expired)
Oct 05, 2010 - Price Changed
Sep 27, 2010 - Price Changed
Aug 27, 2010 - Price Changed
Jul 15, 2010 - Listed (Active)



+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Price changed from $659,000 to $649,000

How's that market chasing workin' out for ya?

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Price changed from $675,000 to $669,500


This is actually the second price reduction in the last four weeks ($30,000 lopped off so far). Will it be enough to for this flipper to make money on his lipstick-on-a-pig makeover?

Well, considering the census bureau reported that homes for sale are currently the lowest they've been since 1967 (yes, you read that correctly), they might find an impatient, frustrated buyer willing to overpay.

For this kind of scratch I think a buyer can do way better, but in this inventory-free environment nothing really surprises me anymore.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

4512 East VERMONT St, Long Beach, CA 90814


ADDRESS: 4512 East VERMONT St, Long Beach, CA 90814
ASKING PRICE: $699,900
BEDS: 3
BATHS: 2.75
SQ. FT.: 1,500
$/SQ. FT.: $467
LOT SIZE: 4,735 Sq. Ft.
YEAR BUILT: 1948
COMMUNITY: Belmont Heights/Alamitos Heights
MLS#: P772185
ON REDFIN: 4 days
DOWN PAYMENT: $140,000
INCOME REQUIREMENT (3.5x): $160,000
MONTHLY NUT: $3,700
DESCRIPTION: Remodeled 3 bedroom 2 3/4 bath Home with Contemporary Open Floor Plan and New Laminate Floors throughout. Light & Bright Living Room w/ Venetian Plaster Fireplace opens to Formal Dining Room. New Kitchen w/ Granite Counters, Pantry, & Stainless Steel Appliances including Gas Cooktop, Oven, Dishwasher, & Breakfast Bar opens to Dining Area and to spacious Family room which overlooks NEW Wooden deck with view of the Private Peaceful Backyard. Spacious Master Suite with a New Bathroom with custom flooring, Skylight tube, Vanity & oversized shower w/ seamless shower doors. 2 other custom remodeled bathrooms. There are many other NEW features such as Roof, Copper Plumbing, Tankless Water Heater, Ceiling Insulation, 2 Separate Heating systems, Doors, Paint, Top of the line Designer Sinks & Fixtures, Sod, Sprinklers, Drip System, and some Windows. Opportunity Knocks, Don't miss this Gorgeous Belmont Heights Home!!

Hooray For Intermittent Title Case!

Our featured property was purchased last April for $405,000, and now this flipper is trying to get his mitts on the $294,900 in profits he so richly deserves.

Now, to be fair, in 2010 this place was a certified turd pile:
4512 East VERMONT St, Long Beach, CA 90814
Woof.

But, as with all flippers, the important question is whether this kitchen is worth the nearly $300,000 premium over the probate sale price:
4512 East VERMONT St, Long Beach, CA 90814

4512 East VERMONT St, Long Beach, CA 90814

4512 East VERMONT St, Long Beach, CA 90814
"But El Bee, clearly they did more work than just the kitchen."

Really? Prove it.

Because although the listing description mentions a laundry list of desirable amenities and upgrades, these are the only other photos:
That's right, friends. A $300,000 markup and only four photos in the whole fucking listing.

I mean, how incompetent do you have to be to dump a bunch of money into flipping a property, jack up the price by hundreds of thousands of dollars, boisterously crow about all the upgrades and renovations, and then fail to, you know, actually include pictures of what you're trying to sell?

And please note that for $700,000 you don't even get a goddamn refrigerator. The balls on this guy.

I'm also curious about something I saw in the description from the 2010 probate listing: "Detached garage. Two rooms off garage that were previously used as additional bedroom and study."

So, since the garage is detached, and these two rooms are off the detached garage, does that mean these rooms are detached from the main house?

The reason I ask is because the public records (and the 2010 listing) clearly indicate this house is a 1-bedroom/1-bath spanning only 888 square feet, but the flipper's new listing is a 3/2.75 clocking in at 1,500. How did this house magically sprout an extra 612 squares?

It appears this dude is trying to include the two rooms off the garage in the total square footage. It's worth noting that if you calculated the price per square foot according to legally confirmed figures in the county assessor's records, the current (and relatively palatable) $467 per square foot would jump to a whopping $788! Motive, anyone?

That seems really fishy. If you're thinking of plunking down nearly three-quarters of a million dollars for this place (HAHAHAHAHA), definitely do your homework and ask the right questions.

Assuming the 1,500 square feet is somehow legitimate, I think a minor price reduction will garner a sale. It's on a relatively big lot in a prime area, has a wealth of upgrades (allegedly), and I think a working couple, forced to wait five years for this massive housing bubble to deflate and return prices to reasonable levels, will look around at the dearth of quality Long Beach inventory and simply bite the bullet and overpay for this flip job.

I myself would feel nauseous paying nearly $300,000 for upgrades that cost, at most, $120,000, but that's just me.

UPDATE: Listing photos finally added.

Friday, June 17, 2011

Irvine Prices in Long Beach: FINAL UPDATE

6/14/11 - Sold $305,000

After years of bullshit wishing prices, this turkey has finally been put out of its misery. In the last update, I said, "...$277 per square foot seems reasonable enough to nab a buyer." It ended up going for $281 per square.

Of note, the robo-appraisal was actually dead on!

$207,276$300,400$414,552

I don't take much joy in being right anymore -- I mean, who really cares? The delusional realtards have long since accepted the truth expressed on this blog and conceded defeat.

Plus, it doesn't take a whole lot of effort to make these accurate predictions. As I've said since the beginning, it's just a simple matter of what local incomes can support. This price is now generally in line with the median income, so it found a buyer -- not exactly a shocking development.

For the record, this sales price represents a $240,000 discount from the original batshit-crazy asking price. Delusional? Yeah, just a tad.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++


Here's an oldie but goodie.

In one of the maiden posts on this blog (don't forget the update), I featured this property, sporting a mind-boggling $545,000 wishing price. That 2008 post prompted a decent amount of hate mail (including this idiot whose soaked-diaper logic I eviscerated in a response. The result? We never heard from him again).

Although much has changed since 2008 (not the least of which is the disappearance of whack job bubble-deniers and wrong-headed realtors spitting their delusional venom on this blog) but what has not changed is my ability to ascertain "true values" based on the facts, the numbers, and good old fashioned common sense.

At the time I said:

At $454 per square foot and 260 days on market, this thing isn't going anywhere. Sometimes I get the feeling owners just aren't serious about selling. I don't care how close you are to Belmont Heights, in this zip code the median household income is $30,353. This house is probably slightly above median considering the minor updates, but even if the median income were $50,000 a year, this thing wouldn't be priced more than $250,000.
Well, now it's back on the market as a short sale, priced at $299,000.

Although it remains to be seen whether it will actually drop to $250,000 (honestly, I doubt it. First, when I made that comment very few could foresee the insane amount of taxpayer cash the government would throw at the housing crisis to keep prices inflated. Second, although it's a short sale -- which as we all know means it isn't really for sale by any heretofore relied-upon measure -- $277 per square foot seems reasonable enough to nab a buyer), my craaaaaazy comment two years ago(!), which seemed so controversial at the time, ultimately wasn't that far off.

On the other hand, how did this rambling, incoherent prediction from "HagenindaGHETTO" work out?
Keep the OC folks in OC! Besides, there is more to do here, it's more fun and you don't have to DRIVE everywhere! We deserve to be more expensive! (unless they are buying all cash... then they come first...LOL)

FYI: This home was not a FIXER FLIPPER, the sellers fixed it for themselves but got transferred to Irvine (now that's ironic is it not?). By the way, I know the sellers, they HATE Irvine (even though they are Conservatives) they miss our GHETTO and the fun, and the walking, and the beach and the marina.....

The listing agent will be thankful the stuffed shirt Self Righteous writer of of this BLOG for a PRICE DROP....it always attracts more potential buyers.

As for the Price:
Half the price...??? Good thing you're an accountant. Just run the comps and talk about the FACTS...
The last thing we need are mendacious comments that give a skewed picture of realty. Dig?

Well, dummy, I ran the comps and I talked about the FACTS and it looks like you were, are, and always will be

DEAD.

ASS.

WRONG.


(How does that feel? Be honest.)

P.S. I can't help but thinking how pathetic it is that these fucking idiots waited so long to get real and price to reality and not fantasy. If they hadn't been so ignorantly focused on getting their greasy mitts on their "well-deserved" bubble profits, they might have had a shot at walking away with actual profits. Oh well.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

One of my first blog posts featured a stunning, if controversial, example of Avarice is Bliss.


This house exemplified the entire premise of this blog: Long Beach, while a great city in its own right, pales in comparison to Orange County regarding schools, low crime rates, incomes, and cleanliness, and therefore cannot possibly justify asking prices that match (and in some cases exceed) the premium levied in OC.

However, Kool-Aid knows no bounds and Long Beach sellers (particularly those in less desirable areas of Long Beach) got drunk on Equity Juice and priced homes in less desirable neighborhoods like they would in Irvine, Huntington Beach, or much nicer cities in LA County.

By putting their greed on display, they held themselves out for ridicule and humiliation. Hence, the impetus and inspiration of this blog.



So, here we are today, more than a year after the home was first listed on the MLS at a laughable $454 per square foot. Like many others, the seller gave up and the property has since been taken off the market ("MY HOUSE IS SPECIAL, DAMN IT! IF THESE BUYERS ARE TOO STUPID TO REALIZE THAT, THEN I WILL JUST TAKE IT OFF THE MARKET. I REFUSE TO BE INSULTED!") and now they are attempting to rent it.

ADDRESS: 1533 E. BROADWAY AVE. (BROADWAY/CHERRY)BEAUTIFUL, LUXURY 2BED/2BATH HOUSE FOR RENT! Immaculate Hardwood Floors throughout House. Skylight in Large Living Room. Fireplace located in Living Room. Luxurious Kitchen with Stainless Steel Appliances. 2 Full Bedrooms with AIR CONDITIONING! Large Attic for Storage. Stacked Washer/Dryer. Wiring available for Direct TV and Surround Sound System! Charming, Large Backyard with Firepit and Entertainment Area. Great Location!!1 YEAR LEASEGardener ProvidedNo PetsTenant Pays ALL UTILTIES EXCEPT WATERMUST SEE!!!!

You are welcome to come into our office and pickup keys to view this unit M-F between 9am-4pm. WE ARE NOT OPEN OVER THE WEEKEND. Please feel free to contact me via email or at the office for further questions.

Actually, they've been attempting to rent it for more than a year, offering a "LEASE or LEASE TO OWN!" scheme--ERR, agreement from the get-go. No bites.

But, I thought "this is a NEW HOUSE." Well, if anything from 1918 could be considered new, I guess they're on to something. By the way, I can give you a sweet deal on a "NEW" Nash 681.



They seem a bit thick-headed, no? They refused to lower their asking price to a reasonable figure and the property didn't move. They refused to ask a reasonable rent and it's still vacant after a year.

I'm going to let this seller in on the most closely-guarded secret known to man. This wisdom is guaranteed to save the housing market in one fell swoop, but it has been elusive to all but those who travel in the darkest, most remote corners of the universe. But now I will unleash it upon the world for all to see, so that our housing market and the current misery and financial hell may end once and for all. And here it is:

Lower the price, dick.

You may have read there has been an uptick in sales recently. There is no complicated, macro economics-heavy explanation for this other than prices are cliff-diving. And when people can afford homes without bullshit, negative-amortizing, interest-only, Harry Houdini loans, homes start selling. Real simple, folks.

And if this seller had accepted this truism from the outset, he could have saved himself a year's worth of carrying costs, which at the time I estimated at $3,500 per month ($42,000 in a year!), and a lot of stress. Assuming this termite tent could get $2,000 per month in rent (which, judging by the time it's been sitting unoccupied, is yet another case of this individual's greed-faced lunacy), they are still bleeding cash to the tune of $1,500 per month! OUCH!



Incidentally, the Irvine property I compared this house sold for $540,000 in March. That was only $9,000 off the original asking price. Yikes, for a corner location? How much "equity" do you suppose that buyer has lost since his purchase?




The point is, Irvine can clearly get away with those prices, but our Long Beach seller learned after a year on the market that Alamitos Beach ain't Irvine.

If you'll recall in the original post, a local realtor and an offended resident posted invective comments with absolutely no analysis or data to support their misguided, rose-colored assessment of Long Beach real estate. They instead offered personal attacks and meaningless insults, but couldn't refute my opinion that:

"At $454 per square foot and 260 days on market, this thing isn't going anywhere. Sometimes I get the feeling owners just aren't serious about selling. I don't care how close you are to Belmont Heights, in this zip code the median household income is $30,353. This house is probably slightly above median considering the minor updates, but even if the median income were $50,000 a year, this thing wouldn't be priced more than $250,000."


I mean, it doesn't take Dionne Warwick and her psychic friends to call that one.

The fact is that homes are still overpriced and prices have a way to go before they meet market fundamentals (I'm not talking about the much-vaunted "bottom," I'm just talking about when a home purchase is a sound investment) and as long as banks have a large inventory of REO properties and that tidal wave of Option ARM resets is looming just off the coast, buying a property today is nothing more than a backstage pass to the Financial Agony show at the Wiltern (I heard Slayer is opening).