Friday, May 7, 2010


Here's an, uh, interesting angle:

Why a Rising Unemployment Rate is Good News

It sounds dreadful. After drifting down consistently since last fall, the unemployment rate has suddenly shot up again, from 9.7 percent in March to 9.9 percent in April. But don't despair: A rising unemployment rate is actually one of the best signs yet that the economy is bouncing back.

The unemployment rate rose for the right reason. Instead of shedding jobs, employers added 290,000 jobs in April, the strongest showing since 2007. The reason the unemployment rate went up is that a lot more people are suddenly looking for work. The government said that the labor force swelled by 805,000 people in April. That's more than three times the number of new jobs, so the proportion of people looking for a job but unable to find one went up. Still, that big increase in the labor force marks an important shift in sentiment among people on the fringes of the economy.

Someone explain that ridiculous logic to me. Yes, it's encouraging that a bunch of people who threw in the towel suddenly feel optimistic enough to start looking again...BUT ONLY IF THOSE 805,000 PEOPLE ACTUALLY FIND A JOB!

I'm amazed at how his rose-colored beer goggles allowed him to write that happy horseshit about "an important shift in sentiment" right after this line: "That's more than three times the number of new jobs, so the proportion of people looking for a job but unable to find one went up." Really? No cognitive dissonance there?

I get that the mainstream media is ready for The Great Recession to be over, but this is just pathetic...



  1. So the ONLY reason why people went looking for work was because they feel confident that the economy was picking up? Really? Those 805K must have been regular CNBC viewers.

    Could it have been that the 2nd family member doesn't bring home enough to make ends meet as the family loses the extended UE benefits? Nope.

    The other thing is that bogus Birth/Death model. So new business opened up 188K jobs? Yeah right. Don't you need capital to start a new business, and then at least access to financing?

  2. Carl,

    I really don't get it. Am I missing something here? Or is this just blatant, wholly transparent cheerleading?

    It feels kind of like the beginning of the Iraq occupation with Baghdad Bob claiming there were no Americans in the city...despite our tanks rolling in the background.

    What's next? Greek rioting is good news because the molotov cocktail industry is creating jobs?

  3. It is complete lies and cheerleading (IMO). I am waiting for the BLS to announce, under cover of a late Friday night, that the Birth Death model for 2010 will be adjusted down by 800K jobs.

    I can't remember when my wife came home and said "wow, we had a GREAT day". She works retail in Long Beach in a VERY discretionary market. I just don't see much pick up in the economy (all anecodtal).

    I saw the retail sales numbers as coming from people have saved up enough by NOT paying their mortgage to cover all moving expenses when they do get the boot, that they can go out a little more and splurge for stuff the kids wanted.

  4. sorry for the double comment, but I did a quick redfin check for 90808. The # of homes on MLS went up to 115. Last time I checked, it was under 100.

    Then I found this beauty.

    Purchased : Apr. 2005 - $480K

    Current Offered - $ 649K (and its a short sale) since Nov. 2009. DOM - 184, and that doesn't include all of the "activity" since 2007.

    So ppsf ($229) isnt' the only factor!!!!

  5. Reporters buy into all kinds of hokum. "Well, an expert (purported) said it, so it must be so...". My most reliable real-time economic indicator is traffic - the more crowded the freeways, the better the economy - and I have noticed it getting a bit worse of late.

    I'll leave the "lies, damned lies and statistics" analysis to others.

  6. As our imperious leader brings us closer to socialism, it is going to take a while before people here really begin to see what it's truly like.

    I'm truly amazed at how many people have fallen prisoner to politics, and the secular religion of political correctness and liberal elitism.

    At some point, people are going to smack their face into the realities of life, and that the privileges which they currently enjoy (like freedom and prosperity), were brought about by those with DRASTICALLY different viewpoints and beliefs.

    It's easy to talk (as Obama has shown), but to deal with REALITY is something entirely different.

    I think things are headed for MUCH much worse, before they turn around. There needs to be more outrage, but while there is some, there is still a lot who are complacent.

  7. Hey, can we leave political rhetoric to CNN, MS/NBC & FOX news blogs? Before decrying any current administration as socialist, Marxist or whatever other term du jour your talking-head of choice is using; you should: a)do some healthy, critical analysis of the last administration and, b) educate yourself on the terms and think for yourself.

  8. With all due respect, if you don't think Obama is a socialist, then you really are clueless.

    People who have the philosophy of a government providing everything for them, are definitely "Socialists".

    And those in government, who think that they are smarter than everyone else, and want to be in a position of power over choice in your's and my lives, are socialist dictators.

    As for Bush, he definitely had his issues! His spending was outta control, and he was "big government" in various ways as well.


    Read the above ten times, before you post again.

    And don't be mad at me, if you worship some utopian ideal, and the realities of life are in contrast with it.